In 2024, the space industry is entering a new era, and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is the site of unprecedented commercial opportunities. Innovations from SpaceX and Blue Origin are making space travel and satellite communications more accessible. In addition, this commercialization will have a ripple effect on the economy and have a profound impact on our lives. This article describes the future of low Earth orbit commercialization, its challenges, and specific company case studies.
Background of Low Earth Orbit Commercialization: From Government to Private Sector
NASA's efforts and the rapid growth of the private sector
NASA has long led the operation of the International Space Station (ISS), but has recently shifted that role to the private sector.In 2020, SpaceX's Crew Dragon spacecraft delivered NASA astronauts to the ISS, opening a new era in the private space industry!The following is a list of the most common problems with the
Behind this commercialization is massive government investment and technology openness: in 2021, the U.S. government invested about $24 billion in space-related technologies to help private companies enter the space market. This has made it easier for companies to access the space market and has intensified competition.
Expanding the Space Business: Private Sector Initiatives in Figures
SpaceX and the Cost Revolution of Reusable Rockets
SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 rocket has fundamentally changed the cost structure of the space industry. Traditionally, rockets were disposable, costing hundreds of millions of dollars per launch; NASA's Space Shuttle cost about $450 million per launch to operate. However, in 2015, SpaceX made its rockets reusable for the first time, reducing the cost per launch toOnly 62 million dollars (about 7 billion yen)The number of space projects has been reduced to 1.5 times that of the previous generation. This innovation has created an environment in which not only NASA and international organizations, but also private companies and university research institutes can realize space projects.
SpaceX's reusable rockets will achieve 61 launches per year in 2022, which is the highest number of space launches worldwide.60% or higheraccounted for the largest share of the total. This has further stimulated the commercial space market, especially the acceleration of low-cost satellite launches and scientific experiments.
The Starlink Project Generates a Global Telecommunications Revolution
SpaceX's "Starlink" project is a project that will place a total of42,000 satellites launchedThe project is a grand plan to provide Internet service to the entire planet. The project is expected to bring high-speed Internet connectivity to remote areas and developing countries, and to bring a new telecommunications revolution to areas without infrastructure.(*3)The following is a list of the most common problems with the
Starlink is already in 2023.More than 3 million usersand is being used as emergency infrastructure, especially in regions prone to natural disasters. For example, when an undersea volcanic eruption in Tonga in 2022 cut off Internet access throughout Tonga, SpaceX was able to quickly provide Internet access via Starlink, contributing greatly to the recovery efforts.(The following is a list of the most common problems with the
Axiom Space's Commercial Space Station: The Future of Space
Axiom Space plans to build the first private, fully commercial space station, which is scheduled for completion in 2028. This space station is,Separated from the International Space Station (ISS) and operated independentlyand will be a base for space travel, research and development, and manufacturing. In particular, the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to take advantage of the zero-gravity environment to develop new medicines and materials.
The zero-gravity environment is,Enables experiments in cell culture and materials science research that are not possible on the groundIt is. For example, an experiment conducted on the ISS in 2019 discovered that cancer cells show abnormal growth in a microgravity environment, and the development of new treatments based on this discovery is underway. Growth is also expected in the manufacturing industry in space, especially in theSemiconductor manufacturing and 3D printing technologyis more precise than on Earth, it is expected to be the foundation of the next generation of industry.(*5)The following is a list of the most common problems with the
In addition, Axiom Space will be in 2022.First civilian astronaut sent to ISSThis has proven the feasibility of the space travel business. With this, the day when the public will be able to visit space is approaching, and the space travel industry will be a rapidly growing market in the coming decades.
Economic Impact and Growth Potential of Space Business
The Space Industry's Path to the $1 Trillion Market
By 2030, the space industry will be worth $1 trillion (about 140 trillion yen)In 2021, the space industry as a whole is projected to grow by about 2.5 times its current growth rate. By 2021, the space industry as a whole is expected to grow toReaching approximately $424 billion (approximately 59 trillion yen), the market's expansion has been fueled by the participation of private companies in particular.
Impact of Space Industry Expansion on Agriculture and Telecommunications
As a specific impact,precision farmingfield, satellite data has made it possible to manage crop growth and weather data in real time, helping to improve harvest yields and production efficiency. For example, in Hokkaido, Japan, one farmer introduced this technology, which has resulted in an annual harvest of20% or higherThe increase was due in large part to the use of satellite data to optimize agricultural water and fertilizer use and reduce waste. This is largely due to the use of satellite data to optimize agricultural water and fertilizer use and reduce waste!(*8)The following is a list of the most common problems with the
Satellite communication technology also plays an important role in disaster management. In recent years, natural disasters such as floods and typhoons have occurred frequently in Japan and the U.S. By utilizing data from Earth observation satellites, it has become possible to predict areas of damage before a disaster occurs and take prompt countermeasures. In 2020, based on analysis of data from earth observation satellites, the extent of damage from a forest fire on the west coast of the United States was predicted in advance and the damage was successfully mitigated.(*9)The following is a list of the most common problems with the
Challenges posed by commercialization and the space debris problem
Rapidly Growing Space Debris and Its Risks
While commercial activity in low Earth orbit is increasing, space debris is a major challenge: as of 2024, there are approximately 30,000 large pieces of debris in low Earth orbit, and that number is expected to continue to grow. These pose a risk of colliding with satellites and space stations, threatening the safety of the entire space business.
Recent Advances in Debris Removal Technology
With increasing commercial activity in low Earth orbit, space debris (space junk) is a serious risk. ApproximatelyMore than 30,000 pieces of debrisare drifting in low Earth orbit, and these are the remnants of spent satellites and rockets, and even those with a diameter of 10 cm or more alone are at risk of causing serious damage upon impact. To solve this problem, companies and research institutes around the world are developing debris removal technologies.
Astroscale Innovations: The "Cleaners" of the Universe
Japanese space startups,Astroscale, Inc.has been a pioneer in space debris removal. The company's successful 2022 mission, ELSA-d, was a groundbreaking demonstration of debris removal. In this mission, simulated debris that imitated a satellite was captured by a magnetic capture mechanism and successfully and safely removed from orbit. This was an important step toward the practical application of debris removal.(*10)The following is a list of the most common problems with the
Astroscale technology targets malfunctioning satellites and deactivated rocket components in space and uses magnetics to capture them.Debris removal on actual commercial satellites by 2024The project is also scheduled to begin work on a new technology. Once this technology is put to practical use, it is expected to greatly reduce the risk of collisions in space and dramatically improve the safety of space development.
European Initiatives: ClearSpace-1
The European Space Agency (ESA) is,Clear Space-1" mission in 2025.is scheduled to be carried out in the United States, and this is a large-scale project aimed at the practical application of debris removal technology. The mission involves a spacecraft equipped with a robotic arm that will capture the debris and burn it as it enters the Earth's atmosphere. ClearSpace-1 will target the upper stage of the Vega rocket, launched in 2013, for the first commercial debris removal attempt!(*11)The following is a list of the most common problems with the
The breakthrough of this technology is the precise capture technique using a robotic arm. This enables reliable recovery of even large debris, and is expected to make debris management possible even as satellite launches become more active in the future.
Potential of Laser Technology
In addition, besides physically capturing debris,Laser TechnologyResearch is underway to remove debris using In this technique, a high-powered laser placed on the ground or in space is used to lightly impact debris, altering its trajectory so that it re-enters the atmosphere and burns up. This is suitable for the removal of large quantities of small debris because it does not require direct contact with the debris.
The Australian company Electro Optic Systems (EOS) demonstrated this technology in 2020, successfully re-entering debris safely into the Earth's atmosphere. Further development of laser technology is expected to enable more efficient monitoring and removal of space debris in the future.
Space Business and the Future of the Earth: International Cooperation and Technological Innovation are Key
Regulations and sustainable space utilization through international cooperation
Space is a common resource that transcends national borders, and international regulation and cooperation are essential for the sustainable use of low Earth orbit. 2021 saw the revision of the International Space Law and the proposal of new rules for debris removal and safe use of space. If the UN-led International Space Guidelines are adopted, the rules for commercial space activities among countries will become more uniform in the future, leading to safer and more efficient space development.
Summary: The future possibilities of the space business and our role in it
The commercialization of low Earth orbit is revolutionizing our lives in a new way, while at the same time bringing economic growth and accelerated technological innovation. Challenges from companies like SpaceX and Axiom Space are bringing space travel and commercial space stations closer to reality, but they are also highlighting the challenges of space debris and international cooperation.
It is time for each of us to consider how we can work together toward the sustainable use of space. The future of the space business is directly linked to our future on Earth.
